A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO STRUCTURAL DESIGN

RELIABILITY THEORY IS USED TO INVESTIGATE THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF A STRUCTURE UNDER ULTIMATE LOAD AND UNDER A PROCESS SUCH AS FATIGUE. THE RISK OF FAILURE IS DERIVED AS A FUNCTION OF THE SERVICE LIFE USING REPRESENTATIVE DATA AND THE RESULTS OF FULL SCALE TESTS ON THE STRUCTURE, AND NUMERICAL METHODS FOR EVALUATING THE RISK FUNCTION ARE DEVELOPED. THIS APPROACH OVERCOMES TO A CONSIDERABLE DEGREE THE MAIN OBJECTION TO PROBABILISTIC DESIGN: THAT IT INVOLVES A GREAT AMOUNT OF DATA WHICH ARE NOT NORMALLY AVAILABLE AND WHICH IT MAY NOT BE FEASIBLE TO OBTAIN. THE PROCEDURE IS APPLIED TO ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE FOR AN AIRCRAFT STRUCTURE OF HIGH STRENGTH STEEL, AND THE EFFECT OF INSPECTION ON THE RISK FUNCTION IS SHOWN. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT AT THE PRESENT TIME THE MAIN APPLICATION OF THE RELIABILITY APPROACH TO STRUCTURAL DESIGN IS TO INVESTIGATE THE EFFECT OF THE VARIOUS DESIGN PARAMENTERS AND OBTAIN THE MOST EFFICIENT DESIGN WITHIN EXISTING DESIGN CODES, INCLUDING THE DETERMINATION OF INSPECTION PERIODS. HOWEVER, IT IS CONSIDERED THAT PROBABILISTIC DESIGN WILL BECOME GENERALLY ADOPTED IN DUE COURSE WHEN MORE DATA AND MORE ADVANCED DATA ACQUISITION TECHNIQUES BECOME AVAILABLE. /TRRL/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • CONF PAPER
  • Corporate Authors:

    Proc 1st Intl Conf /Hong Ikong

    ,    
  • Authors:
    • Payne, A O
    • Grandage, J M
  • Publication Date: 1972

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: p. 35-74

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00210105
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 31 1974 12:00AM