TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING: A CASE STUDY OF LONG-TERM REQUIREMENTS FOR RIGID AIRFIELD PAVEMENT SYSTEMS

THIS REPORT PRESENTS AN IN-ACTION EXAMPLE OF THE "DELPHI METHOD" OF TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING, WHICH INVOLVES POLLING EXPERT OPINION. EXPERTS IN THE PLANNING, DESIGN, CONSTRUCTION, AND OPERATION OF AIRFIELDS WERE POLLED TO DEVELOP A FORECAST OF TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES IN THOSE AREAS. THE RESULTS DEMONSTRATE HOW THE WIDE RANGE OF INFORMATION OBTAINABLE FROM EXPERT OPINION CAN BE CONVENIENTLY PRESENTED TO PLANNERS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE CONVERGENCE OF OPINION AFTER TWO ROUNDS OF QUESTIONING INDICATES THAT MORE THAN ONE ROUND MAY BE UNNECESSARY TO OBTAIN THE SUBJECTIVE TYPE OF INFORMATION DISCUSSED IN THE FORECAST.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • TECH REPT NO A-19 4 APP
  • Corporate Authors:

    Construction Engineering Research Laboratory

    Army Corps of Engineers, P.O. Box 4005
    Champaign, IL  United States  61820
  • Authors:
    • Pananos, W J
  • Publication Date: 1973-8

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 11 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00206118
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Tech Rpt
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 3 1974 12:00AM