FORECASTING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FOR THE CHICAGO REGION

THE ECONOMIC FORECAST DEVELOPED BY THE CHICAGO AREA TRANSPORTATION STUDY WAS ONE OF A SEQUENCE OF FORECASTS TO BE USED IN DEVELOPING TRANSPORTATION PLANS FOR THE CHICAGO AREA. THE PRIMARY GOAL WAS DEVELOPMENT OF EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS TO 1980; SECONDARY GOALS INCLUDED AN ATTEMPT TO PREDICT FUTURE AUTOMOBILE REGISTRATION AND AN ATTEMPT TO GAIN SOME INSIGHT INTO THE EFFECTS OF AN EXPANDED HIGHWAY PROGRAM ON THE ECONOMY. A REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL WAS EMPLOYED. THE FACTORS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN DEVELOPING FORECASTS WERE POPULATION INCREASE, GROWTH IN REAL INCOME PER CONSUMER UNIT, CHANGES IN CONSUMER EXPENDITURE WITH RISING REAL INCOME PER CONSUMER UNIT, CHANGES IN THE CHICAGO AREA'S TRADE WITH THE OUTSIDE ECONOMY, AND DIFFERENTIAL GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY BETWEEN INDUSTRIES. THE INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH WAS COMPARED TO AN ALTERNATIVE FORECASTING DEVICE (FITTING TREND LINES), AND SOME IDEAS ON THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE APPROACH WERE DEVELOPED. /AUTHOR/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Vol 38, pp 9-25, 4 FIG, 14 TAB, 11 REF
  • Authors:
    • Hoch, I
  • Publication Date: 1959

Media Info

  • Monograph Title: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board, Washington, D.C., January 5-9, 1959
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00201985
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Sep 19 1971 12:00AM