DECISION THEORIES IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

A BRIEF SURVEY IS PRESENTED OF SOME OF THE DECISION THEORIES THAT MAY BE APPLICABLE TO TRANSPORTATION PLANNING. FOUR GROUPS OF TECHNIQUES ARE DISCUSSED: STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY, HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE, SEARCH TECHNIQUES, AND EVALUATION PROCEDURES. THE SIMPLE MODEL OF THE STATISTCAL DECISION THEORY APPROACH TO TREATING UNCERTAINTY WAS EXTENDED TO THAT OF SEQUENTIAL DECISION PROCESSES. THE RELEVANCE WAS POINTED OUT TO THE PROBLEM OF HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE. A HYPOTHETICAL HIGHWAY ROUTE LOCATION PROBLEM IS SOLVED IN THIS MANNER. THE HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE MODEL PROVIDES A RATIONAL PROCEDURE FOR GUIDING A DESIGN PROCESS SUCH AS ROUTE LOCATION. SEARCH IS DISCUSSED AS THE PROCESS THROUGH WHICH ONE OR MORE ALTERNATIVES ARE PRODUCED. THE SUBTLETIES OF EVALUATION AND CHOICE AMONG ALTERNATIVES ARE DISCUSSED. SOME OF THE DIRECTIONS OF CURRENT WORK IN DECISION THEORIES ARE POINTED OUT THAT MAY BE USEFUL IN TRANSPORTATION. MR. MANHEIM POINTS OUT THAT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS AN IMPORTANT TOOL. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT A CONTINUOUS PLANNING PROCESS IS NEEDED TO SOLVE THE URBAN TRANSPORTATION PROBLEM.

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  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
  • Corporate Authors:

    Highway Research Board (HRB)

    Washington, DC   
  • Authors:
    • Manheim, Marvin L
  • Discussers:
    • Campbell, Wilson
    • Haney, Dan
  • Conference:
  • Publication Date: 1970

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 17-26
  • Monograph Title: Highway engineering economy
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00201804
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jul 21 1970 12:00AM