PREDICTING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF ALTERNATE INTERSTATE ROUTE LOCATIONS

THE STUDY METHOD EMPLOYED IN A RECENT EXAMINATION OF THE COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THREE ALTERNATIVE ROUTES FOR AN INTERSTATE HIGHWAY IN THE VICINITY OF MAMMOTH CAVE, KY., APPEARS TO HAVE GENERAL SIGNIFICANCE FOR SUCH PLANNING INQUIRIES. THE CENTRAL PROBLEM IN THE INVESTIGATION WAS TO PREDICT THE QUANTITATIVE EFFECTS OF EACH ALTERNATIVE LOCATION ON HIGHWAY-ORIENTED BUSINESS SUCH AS IS NOW LOCATED ALONG A MAJOR NORTH-SOUTH ROUTE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE PROJECTED ONE. TO FACILITATE THE PREDICTIONS, THE AUTHORS USE THE CONCEPT OF AN ECONOMICALLY NEUTRAL ROAD AS A STANDARD BY WHICH THE ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS ARE JUDGED. THE EFFECTS ARE MEASURED IN TERMS OF BUSINESS VOLUME IN THE YEAR 1975. THE EXISTING MARKET BASE OF HIGHWAY-ORIENTED BUSINESSES IN THE AREA STUDIED IS DETERMINED AND A HYPOTHETICAL 1975 BUSINESS VOLUME IS PROJECTED. A SPECIALLY DESIGNED ORIGIN-AND-DESTINATION STUDY, A MOTEL SURVEY, A RESTAURANT SURVEY, NATIONAL PARK STATISTICS, AND GROSS RECEIPTS AND INCOME DATA ARE USED IN ESTABLISHING THE CURRENT VOLUME OF BUSINESS AMONG PARK VISITORS, THROUGH TRAVELERS ON THE HIGHWAY, AND LOCAL AREA RESIDENTS. AFTER ALLOCATING THE BUSINESS VOLUME OF MOTELS, RESTAURANTS, AND GASOLINE STATIONS AMONG THESE SOURCES, A 1975 DOLLAR VOLUME FOR THE NEUTRAL ROAD IS PROJECTED. THE OVER-ALL PREDICTION IS BASED ON INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS FOR EACH TYPE OF BUSINESS, BY COMMUNITY, USING PROJECTED CHANGES IN PARK ATTENDANCE, TRAFFIC VOLUME, AND AREA POPULATION. ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE FOR CHANGES IN CHARACTERISTICS OF TRAFFIC AND PARK ATTENDANCE. EACH ALTERNATIVE ROUTE LOCATION IS COMPARED WITH THE NEUTRAL ROAD ON THE BASIS OF ACCESS, VISIBILITY OF ESTABLISHMENTS, DEVELOPMENTAL POTENTIAL, ADVERTISING RESTRICTIONS, AND ANTICIPATED DRIVER BEHAVIOR. /AUTHOR/

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures;
  • Pagination: pp 67-72
  • Monograph Title: Indirect effects of highway improvement
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00201401
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Aug 5 1994 12:00AM