ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR STATEWIDE HIGHWAY STUDIES

METHODS AND PROCEDURES INVOLVED IN THE CONDUCT OF HIGHWAY NEEDS STUDIES ARE REVIEWED AND ANALYZED. THREE PROCEDURES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR INJECTING ECONOMIC FACTORS INTO FORECASTING FOR STATE HIGHWAYS STUDY ANALYSIS. THE FIRST PROCEDURE IS TO TAKE A STATE ECONOMIC INDEX SUCH AS PERSONAL INCOME, DETERMINE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MOTOR VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS AND VEHICLE-MILES AND THE INDEX, PROJECT THE INDEX AND THEN PROJECT MOTOR VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS AND VEHICLE-MILES ON THE BASIS OF THAT RELATIONSHIP. A SECOND PROCEDURE IS TO TAKE A NATIONAL ECONOMIC FORECAST SUCH AS PERSONAL INCOME OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, RELATE A STATE INDEX SUCH AS PERSONAL INCOME TO IT, AND PROJECT THE STATE INDEX ON THE BASIS OF ITS HISTORICAL RELATION TO THE NATIONAL INDEX. THEN THE STATE MOTOR VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS AND VEHICLE-MILES CAN BE PROJECTED BY RELATING THEM TO THE PROJECTED STATE INDEX. THIS PROCEDURE IS BETTER THAN THE FIRST, BUT ITS BASIC WEAKNESS OF CONTINUING PAST RELATIONSHIPS IN A GIVEN STATE CAN CAUSE MAJOR ERRORS. THE THIRD AND MOST COMPREHENSIVE PROCEDURE IS TO TAKE THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL PERSONAL INCOME, STUDY THE PROSPECTS OF THE MAJOR SECTORS OF A STATE'S ECONOMY IN RELATION TO THESE FORECASTS, AND PREPARE A STATE FORECAST. CONCLUSIONS DRAWN AS A RESULT OF THE EXPLORATORY APPLICATION OF THE PROPOSED PROCEDURES ARE THAT ECONOMIC FORECASTING HAS GREAT POSSIBILITIES AND THAT PERSONAL INCOME, THE ECONOMIC INDEX TESTED, PROMISES TO BE FULLY AS USEFUL AS ANTICIPATED. THE RESULTS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR HIGHWAY PURPOSES WILL PROVE BENEFICIAL TO HIGHWAY PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT.

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  • Accession Number: 00200975
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jul 28 1994 12:00AM