THE USE OF LAND DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION MODELS IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

THE BAY AREA SIMULATION STUDY OR BASS MODEL IS A LARGE COMPLEX OF COMPUTER MODELS THAT HAS AS ITS GOAL FORECASTING FUTURE GROWTH WITHIN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE BASS MODEL IS COMPOSED OF THREE DISTINCT SUBMODELS. THE FIRST OF THESE IS THE EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION PROJECTION SUBMODEL THAT FORECASTS EMPLOYMENT BY 21 CATEGORIES AND POPULATION TOTALS FOR THE BAY AREA OVER THE PERIOD FROM 1970 TO THE YEAR 2020. THE RESULTS OR THE OUTPUT OF THIS SUBMODEL ARE FED INTO THE TWO OTHER SUBMODELS THAT ALLOCATE PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT, POPULATION, HOUSING, AND LAND DEVELOPMENT IN 777 SUBAREAS OF THE REGION. THE TIME REQUIRED TO TRAVEL FROM ONE PLACE OF EMPLOYMENT TO ALTERNATE PLACES OF RESIDENCE IS A KEY DETERMINANT OF ESTIMATED FUTURE LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE BASS MODEL. THESE ESTIMATES ARE MADE THROUGH THE USE OF A TIME-DISTANCE MATRIX ASSUMEDLY PORTRAYING THE TIME REQUIRED TO TRAVEL FROM THE CENTER OF ANY ONE OF THE 777 TRACTS TO EACH OF THE OTHER TRACTS IN THE 13-COUNTY BAY AREA. THE INFLUENCE OF PUBLIC POLICY VARIABLES IS REFLECTED PRIMARILY IN THE ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING THE USABLE SUPPLY OF LAND AND THE TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES THAT WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE. IT HAS BEEN ASSUMED THAT CURRENT FREEWAY PLANS APPROVED BY THE STATE DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS WILL BE COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE AND THAT THE FIRST STAGE OF BART WILL BE COMPLETED BY 1970 AND THE SECOND STAGE BY 1980. /AUTHOR/

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: pp 82-91
  • Monograph Title: Transportation economics
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00200376
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Nov 24 1994 12:00AM