EFFECT OF TRAFFIC GROWTH PROJECTIONS UPON ESTIMATES OF HIGHWAY NEEDS AND REVENUE

ONE OF THE ESSENTIAL FIRST STEPS IN THE MAKING OF A HIGHWAY NEEDS STUDY IS TO ESTIMATE WHAT FUTURE TRAVEL WILL BE. THE MERITS ARE DISCUSSED OF FORECASTING METHODS. THE PURPOSE IS TO SHOW HOW, AND TO WHAT EXTENT, THE TYPE OF FORECAST AFFECTS NEEDS AND REVENUE ESTIMATES. STRAIGHT-LINE FORECASTS ARE ANALYZED. ANALYSIS IS UNDER WAY FOR THE CURVE- TYPE OF PROJECTIONS WHICH WILL BE REPORTED LATER. THREE STRAIGHT-LINE FORECASTS WERE USED, A 3-, 4-, AND 5-PERCENT ANNUAL INCREASE OVER PRESENT TRAFFIC. ESTIMATES OF NEEDS WERE THEN COMPUTED BY THE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS APPROACH. TRAFFIC HAS A NOTICEABLE AFFECT UPON COSTS. UPON COMPLETION OF THE STUDY IT IS HOPED THAT A BETTER UNDERSTANDING WILL BE GAINED AS TO THE INFLUENCE OF TRAVEL FORECASTS UPON NEEDS AND REVENUE ESTIMATES.

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00200320
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jul 28 1994 12:00AM