International air passenger transport in the future

This study considers the demand for international air transport in 5-15 years' time and what will be the underlying drivers of that demand. It is suggested that a point of diminishing returns may have begun to set in for OECD countries that have liberalised aviation markets to a degree with growth tapering to trend GDP growth. The effect of new economic and carbon / energy strategies is considered hard to establish. One set of forecasts suggests that inter-regional air travel growth will exceed intra-regional growth. While fuel prices and changes to air service agreements will have animpact on international aviation, the most important impact will come from industry and economic reorganisation. The persistence of the current economic malaise will lead to a number of firms failing, leading to higher air fares and less route expansion. A decrease in trade may also lead to an increase in protectionism. As economies begin to recover, the consensus isthat recovery will be slow.

• Record URL:
  http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/discussionpapers/DP200915.pdf
• 
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9789282102657
• Corporate Authors:

  Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

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  Paris,   France  75775 Paris Cedex 16

  International Transport Forum

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• Authors:
  • Gillen, D
• Conference:
  • 18th International ITF/OECD Symposium on Transport Economics and Policy
  • Location: Madrid , Spain
  • Date: 2009-11-16 to 2009-11-18
• Publication Date: 2010

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 95-121
• Monograph Title: The future for interurban passenger transport. Bringing citizens closer together. 18th International symposium on transport economics and policy

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Conferences; Demand; Economics; Future; International; Passenger transportation; Transportation
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Passenger Transportation; I10: Economics and Administration; I70: Traffic and Transport; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01166075
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: TRL
• ISBN: 9789282102657
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Aug 26 2010 8:40AM