DECISION ANALYSIS EXPERT USE

THIS PAPER IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF ARTICLES INTRODUCING A NEW CONCEPTUAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE USE OF EXPERTS IN DECISION SITUATIONS. PRESENTED IS THE FIRST THEORY OF EXPERT RESOLUTION WHOLLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BAYESIAN OR SUBJECTIVIST VIEW OF PROBABILITY. THE APPROACH TAKEN RESTS PHILOSOPHICALLY ON THE FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION ANALYSIS. THE RESULTS FORM PRACTICAL TOOLS FOR SOLVING EXPERT RESOLUTION PROBLEMS. A FRAMEWORK IS DEVELOPED WHICH ENABLES A DECISION-MAKER TO ENCODE HIS STATE OF INFORMATION CONCERNING AN EXPERT. APPLICATION OF THE TOOLS OF BAYESIAN INFERENCE PROVIDES A MECHANISM BY WHICH A DECISION-MAKER CAN INCORPORATE AN EXPERT'S OPINION INTO HIS OWN. THE PROBLEM OF DETERMINING THE ECONOMIC WORTH OF ONE OR A PANEL OF EXPERTS IS PRESENTED.

  • Authors:
    • Morris, P A
  • Publication Date: 1974-5

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00200799
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 31 1974 12:00AM