METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE EFFECT OF LONG-RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLANS ON RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ACTIVITIES

A LONG-RANGE PREDICTIVE MODEL IS DESCRIBED FOR ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT WOULD BE DISPLACED BY PLANNED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS FOR A METROPOLITAN AREA. THE MODEL CONSISTS OF 2 LINKED SUBMODELS: A BASIC MODEL WHOSE OUTPUT IS THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLD UNITS DISPLACED PER ACRE OF RIGHT-OF-WAY AND RIGHT-OF-WAY MODEL WHOSE OUTPUT IS TOTAL ACRES OF RIGHT-OF-WAY REQUIRED BY THE PROPOSED SYSTEM. THE METHOD INVOLVED GENERATING, CALIBRATING, AND TESTING SEVERAL BASIC MODELS BY MEANS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND USED REAL-WORLD HISTORICAL DATA FOR 105 SECTION (LATER AGGREGATED INTO 65 SECTIONS) OF RECENTLY CONSTRUCTED FREEWAYS. THE CASE STUDY AREA WAS CLASSIFIED INTO 4 CATEGORIES: CENTRAL CITY, SUBURBS, STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA, AND URBANIZED. EACH BASIC MODEL WAS TESTED WITH OBSERVATIONS OF FREEWAY SECTIONS IN EACH CATEGORY, AND THE "BEST" OF THE BASIC MODELS WAS SELECTED FOR LINKAGE WITH A RIGHT-OF-WAY MODEL. THE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF THE HOUSEHOLD DISPLACEMENT MODEL WAS TESTED ON 12 MILES OF RECENTLY CONSTRUCTED FREEWAYS NOT INCLUDED IN THE CALIBRATION OF THE MODEL. THE ESTIMATES WERE FOUND TO BE WITHIN 4 PERCENT OF THE ACTUAL DISPLACEMENTS.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 21-28
  • Monograph Title: Citizen participation and housing displacement
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00200671
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309022673
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jul 31 1974 12:00AM