LONG-RANGE TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT PLANNING: A FORECASTING APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE HIGHWAY SYSTEMS ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

THE INCREASING DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH JUSTIFYING NEW HIGHWAY SYSTEMS ARE BECOMING WELL KNOWN. RELIANCE ON THE BENEFIT-COST APPROACH MAY NOT BE ADEQUATE FOR DETERMINING WHICH FUTURE HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN BECAUSE OF PROBLEMS INVOLVED IN INCORPORATING SOCIAL VALUES AND LOCATIONAL CHANGES INTO THE CALCULATIONS. THIS PAPER PRESENTS A PLANNING TOOL THAT MAY SUPPLEMENT BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS TO IMPROVE THE ABILITY OF HIGHWAY PLANNERS IN ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE HIGHWAY SYSTEMS. THE APPROACH EMPLOYS A FORECASTING MODEL THAT EXPLICITLY SHOWS THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TRANSPORTATION COSTS DUE TO IMPROVED HIGHWAYS ON THE REGIONAL LOCATION OF THE POPULATION AND INDUSTRY AND ON REGIONAL INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT. THE MODEL BEING USED IS AN OPERATING INTERREGIONAL DYNAMIC MODEL THAT FORECASTS INDUSTRY ACTIVITY AND OTHER VARIABLES AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL. THE RESEARCHERS CONCLUDE THAT NEW TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AFFECT INTERREGIONAL TRADE, REGIONAL OUTPUT, AND TRANSPORTATION NEEDS. FORECASTING FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS, THEREFORE, REQUIRES SYSTEMATIC EVALUATION OF DIFFERENTIAL REGIONAL SENSITIVITY TO CHANGES IN TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 13-20
  • Monograph Title: Transportation planning: improvement priorities
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00200531
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 030902191X
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Feb 12 1974 12:00AM