Lateral Intent Error's Impact on Aircraft Prediction

This paper reports on the number of lateral deviations between known flight plan routes within the ground and air automation systems around the world. It also determines the impact of these errors on some decision support tools. The authors note that error of lateral intent in our air traffic management automation system is a global issue for all air traffic service providers. When two or more aircraft fly within a defined, legally required separation distance a conflict occurs. Results from U.S. data collection of some 50,000 flights and more than eight million measurements show a standard deviation of approximately 21 nautical miles; this compares to European results of 30 nautical miles for 19 percent of flight measurements taken from about 27,000 flights across European airspace. The researchers conclude that large ground-based deviations reported and impact demonstrated on a conflict probe tool show lateral deviations are a key source of error in ground-based trajectory predictor process, which is core to many decision support tool functions. International collaboration will be required to address challenging ATM problems faced by all nations and air traffic service providers.

  • Availability:
  • Authors:
    • Paglione, Mike
    • Bayraktutar, Ibrahim
    • McDonald, Greg
    • Bronsvoort, Jesper
  • Publication Date: 2010


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 29-62
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01154917
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: UC Berkeley Transportation Library
  • Files: BTRIS, TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 13 2010 5:55PM