COMMUTER RAIL DIVERSION MODEL (ABRIDGMENT)

Over the past two decades, commuter railroads have been experiencing declines in ridership that have led to a rather stable but low level of ridership. One of the methods of offsetting losses resulting from declining ridership is to increase commutation rates to increase the entire fare structure. This paper describes a diversion model that presents a general technique for determining the number of people diverted to other modes of transportation as a result of fare increases. Although the diversion rate may differ from railroad to railroad and from urban area to urban area, the model can be used to determine a general diversion value applicable anywhere in the country. Furthermore, the methodology provides a framework in which railroads and transit properties, or any other agency, can develop their own relationships or assess the impact of a specific rate increase. Based on the analyses performed, it can be concluded that: a ridership loss of approximately three percent can be expected for every ten percent increase in commuter rail fares; ridership on other transit facilities appears to be affected similarly to that of commuter railroads by fare increases; an increase in commuter fares, when accompanied by an increase in service, does not necessarily result in ridership losses; and user and system characteristics differ throughout the country.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: pp 197-200
  • Monograph Title: Transportation forecasting and travel behavior
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00196013
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Sep 15 1981 12:00AM