DISAGGREGATE TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. SYSTEM STRUCTURE, COMPONENT MODELS, AND APPLICATION PROCEDURES

Significant advances have recently been made in developing and applying disaggregate behavioral travel demand models to many aspects of urban travel decisions. What has not previously been developed is a full set of urban models integrated into a complete forecasting system for use by a metropolitan planning organization. The purpose of this paper is to describe the first such system, which was developed for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the designated metropolitan planning organization for the San Francisco area. First, the background of the current modeling project is briefly set out, followed by a description of the structure of the model system. The model development process--estimation, prediction testing, and validation--is described, and two computerized model application procedures--a regional network analysis system compatible with available urban transportation planning packages and a generalized policy analysis system based on random sample forecasting--are presented. Conclusions concerning the advantages and disadvantages of the system of disaggregate models are presented. /Authors/

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1978/673/673-019.pdf
• Record URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=DISAGGREGATE+TRAVEL+DEMAND+MODELS+FOR+THE+SAN+FRANCISCO+BAY+AREA.+SYSTEM+STRUCTURE%2C+COMPONENT+MODELS%2C+AND+APPLICATION+PROCEDURES&author=E.+Ruiter&author=M.+Ben-Akiva&publication_year=1978
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper appeared in TRB Research Record No. 673, Transportation Forecasting and Travel Behavior. Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting and Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Ruiter, Earl R
  • Ben-Akiva, Moshe
• Discussers:
  • Dunbar, Frederick C
  • Shunk, Gordon A
  • Kollo, Hannah P H
• Publication Date: 1978

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: pp 121-128
• Monograph Title: Transportation forecasting and travel behavior
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 673
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: City planning; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Mode choice; Transportation planning; Transportation policy; Travel demand; Urban transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Geographic Terms: San Francisco Bay Area
• Old TRIS Terms: Modal selection
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00196001
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 15 1981 12:00AM