Measuring Uncertainty in Long-term Travel Demand Forecasting From Demographic Modelling: Case Study of the Paris and Montreal Metropolitan Areas

Uncertainty on traffic forecasts may have an impact on reimbursement scheduling for investment, as well as for scenarios for operating costs. Even the best projections are based on models and assumptions, thus raising the question of their accuracy. Indeed, long term investments are risky and it is important to cope with uncertainty. This paper deals with the uncertainty on a long term projection with an Age-Cohort approach. The authors used the jackknife technique to estimate confidence intervals and observe that the demographic approach outlines the structural determinants for long term trends of mobility.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03861112
• Authors:
  • Armoogum, Jimmy
  • Madre, Jean-Loup
  • Bussiere, Yves
• Publication Date: 2009

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 9-20
• Serial:
  • IATSS Research
  • Volume: 33
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences
  • ISSN: 0386-1112

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Demographics; Financing; Mobility; Traffic forecasting; Travel behavior; Travel demand; Travel demand management; Uncertainty
• Geographic Terms: Montreal (Canada); Paris Metropolitan Area
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01150870
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 19 2010 10:59AM