Development of Empirical-Mechanistic Pavement Performance Models Using Data from the Washington State PMS Database

The main objective of this project was to develop Empirical-Mechanistic (E-M) performance models using data from Washington State’s PMS (Pavement Management System) databases for Caltrans. Four models were developed from that data: 1. A model for predicting the initiation of overlay cracking in asphalt concrete (AC) pavements; 2. A model for predicting the progression of roughness for AC pavements; 3. A model for predicting the initiation of cracking in portland cement concrete (PCC) pavements; 4. A model for predicting the progression of roughness for portland cement concrete pavements. The performance models for cracking initiation and International Roughness Index (IRI) developed using the WSDOT PMS data for AC pavements or overlays are satisfactory. The explanatory variables that were the most relevant predictors of the number of Equivalent Single Axle Loads (ESALs) to cracking initiation of overlays on AC pavements, and those that were found to be the most relevant predictors of the annual increment in IRI for AC pavements and overlays, were identified. A list of variables that are recommended for collection by Caltrans also were identified. To complete the AC pavement performance model suite, a crack progression model should be developed. The completed AC pavement models should be tested on California PMS data. Once Caltrans has populated its PMS database with sufficiently extensive condition survey data, the models developed in this report can be updated with the California data by using statistical fusion procedures, such as Bayesian Updating. To fully reap the benefits of its investment in this research, Caltrans should continue its efforts at modernizing its Pavement Management System.


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  • Accession Number: 01150474
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: UC Berkeley Transportation Library
  • Report/Paper Numbers: UCPRC-RR-2005-05
  • Created Date: Feb 3 2010 6:56PM