Injury Severity of Multivehicle Crash in Rainy Weather

As part of the Wisconsin road weather safety initiative, the objective of this study is to microscopically assess rainy weather effect on the severities of multi-vehicle involved crashes on Wisconsin interstate highways utilizing a polychotomous response model, sequential logistic regression. Weather related factors considered in this study included estimated rainfall intensity for 15 minutes prior to a crash occurrence, water film depth, temperature, wind speed/direction, stopping sight distance and car-following distance at the crash moment. For each crash observation, weather station data around the crash location were interpolated using the inverse squared distance method. Non-weather factors such as road geometries, traffic conditions, collision manners, vehicle types, and driver and temporal attributes were also considered. The sequential logistic regression was tested with forward and backward formats for the polychotomous outcomes of multi-vehicle crash severity. The best format to predict the multi-vehicle crash severities in rainy weather was selected by combining measures of model performance for goodness of fit, parameter significance, and prediction accuracies. In conclusion, the backward sequential logistic regression model produced the best results for predicting crash severities in rainy weather where water film depth, the number of traffic lanes, tangent roadway section, peak traffic hours, at-fault driver's action at the crash moment, standard deviation of 5-minute traffic volume and safety belt usage were found to be statistically significant. These findings can be used to determine the probabilities of multi-vehicle crash severity in rainy weather and provide quantitative support on improving road weather safety via weather warning systems, highway facility improvements, and traffic management.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: Maps; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 18p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01151199
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 10-4056
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jan 25 2010 12:05PM