METHODOLOGY FOR RELATING HIGHWAY INVESTMENT TO REGIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

THE RESEARCH CENTERS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONSHIPS FOR PREDICTING CHANGES IN TRADE PARAMETERS AND ON A REVIEW OF THE BASIC STEPS USED IN REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF HIGHWAY INVESTMENT. TRADE COEFFICIENTS DEVELOPED FROM PUBLISHED AND UNPUBLISHED DATA (1963 CENSUS OF TRANSPORTATION AND A SPECIAL TABULATION) ARE ANALYZED USING REGRESSION TECHNIQUES. IN ADDITION, THREE ALTERNATIVE INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS (CONSTANT REGIONAL IMPORTS, GRAVITY PARAMETER, AND REGIONAL) ARE DEMONSTRATED BY MEANS OF A HYPOTHETICAL NUMERICAL EXAMPLE TO SHOW HOW A PARTICULAR HIGHWAY INVESTMENT WILL AFFECT REGIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. THE AUTHORS INDICATE THAT THE MULTIREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL IS APPLICABLE TO THE EVALUATION OF STIMULATION OF FINAL DEMAND AND CHANGES IN TRADE PATTERNS BUT IS NOT APPLICABLE TO ASSESSING CHANGES IN COSTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES. BASED ON THE RESULTS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE EQUATIONS, THE AUTHORS CONCLUDE THAT THE VARIATION IN TRADE COEFFICIENTS IS LIMITED AS A MEANS OF PREDICTING THE EFFECT OF HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENTS ON TRADE PATTERNS. THE DISAPPOINTING RESULTS MIGHT BE EXPLAINED BY THE USE OF CROSS-SECTION DATA BECAUSE THERE IS LITTLE TIME-SERIES DATA AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME) AND BY THE USE OF A MACRO RATHER THAN A MICRO-LEVEL APPROACH. HOWEVER, THE EXTENSIVE RESULTS FROM THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS CAN BE OF HELP TO FURTHER RESEARCH. /FHWA/

  • Corporate Authors:

    Jack Faucett Associates, Incorporated

    4550 Montgomery Avenue, Suite 300N
    Bethesda, MD  United States  20814

    Maryland State Roads Commission

    ,    

    Federal Highway Administration

    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Publication Date: 1970-9

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00201230
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Federal Highway Administration
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Fh-11-7292
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Mar 7 1971 12:00AM