STABILITY OF A RECREATIONAL TRAVEL MODEL

THE STABILITY OVER TIME OF A MODEL DESIGNED TO PREDICT RECREATIONAL TRIPS TO NEW RESERVOIRS IN INDIANA WAS EVALUATED. THE NEW RESERVOIRS MODEL INCLUDES ONLY ROAD DISTANCE, COUNTY POPULATION, AND THE INFLUENCE OF OTHER SIMILAR FACILITIES AS THE FACTORS AFFECTING ATTENDANCE. A TECHNIQUE WAS DEVELOPED ILLUSTRATING HOW THE MODEL CAN BE USED TO PREDICT FUTURE ATTENDANCE AND TRAFFIC VOLUMES. THREE PARKS, RACCOON STATE RECREATION AREA ON MANSFIELD RESERVOIR, LIEBER STATE PARK ON CAGLES MILL RESERVOIR AND MONROE STATE PARK ON MONROE RESERVOIR, WERE USED IN THE STUDY. DATA WERE OBTAINED FROM NEARLY 12,000 INTERVIEWS, REPRESENTING 25 PERCENT OF ARRIVING TRIPS AT THE PARK ENTRANCES, WHICH WERE CONDUCTED OVER WEEKEND PERIODS DURING JUNE, JULY AND AUGUST FROM 1967 THROUGH 1969. THE NEW RESERVOIR MODEL WAS DEVELOPED BY NON-LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS. TWO EQUATIONS CONSTITUTED THE PREDICTION MODEL, ONE FOR THE CONDITION WHEN THERE IS NO OTHER SIMILAR FACILITY CLOSER TO A COUNTY THAN THE RESERVOIR UNDER STUDY, AND ONE FOR THE CONDITION WHEN THERE IS ANOTHER FACILITY CLOSER TO THE COUNTY THAN THE RESERVOIR UNDER STUDY. THE TWO MODELS WERE COMPARED AND IT WAS FOUND THAT WHILE PARAMETER B (THE RATE OF CHANGE OF THE NON-LINEAR REGRESSION CURVE) REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER TIME, THERE WAS AN INCREASE IN PARAMETER A (Y-INTERCEPT, ANNUAL TRIPS PER 1,000 POPULATION FROM A COUNTY TO A RESERVOIR, OF THE NON-LINEAR REGRESSION CURVE) OVER THE STUDY PERIOD. ALSO INCLUDED ARE ESTIMATES OF THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GASOLINE CONSUMED PER YEAR BY MOTORBOATS FOR WHICH STATE FUEL TAX WAS PAID. /AUTHOR/

  • Corporate Authors:

    Purdue University/Indiana Department of Transportation JHRP

    Purdue University, School of Civil Engineering
    West Lafayette, IN  United States  47907-1284

    Federal Highway Administration

    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Authors:
    • ROBINSON, D C
  • Publication Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00201228
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Federal Highway Administration
  • Report/Paper Numbers: C-36-54kk
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Nov 18 1970 12:00AM