If You Build It, They Will Come? A Dynamic Analysis of Factors Affecting the Transit Ridership in New York City Region

This study analyzes the impacts on commuter rail ridership on New Jersey Transit, specifically focusing on employment, service level (transit supply), transit fare, and gasoline price. The effects of employment, service level, and fare have been studied previously; however, recent volatility in gasoline price presents an opportunity to examine the short-term and long-term impacts on transit ridership. This study sets to answer two questions about the determinants of transit ridership: what is the causal relationship between transit supply and transit demand, and what are the short-term and long-term impacts of gasoline prices on transit ridership? Robust time series analysis will answer these two questions. We find that there is an immediate and a four month lag effect of transit supply on transit demand, with no leads. We also find that the short-term and long-term elasticities of gasoline price are 0.11 and 0.19, respectfully. These results are then compared to previous research in this field.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 32p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01154311
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 10-2648
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jan 25 2010 11:17AM