Fuzzy Rule-Based Approach for Evacuation Trip Demand Modeling

Evacuation demand generation is an important part of evacuation modeling. While many evacuation behavior models have been developed in response to hurricane event, little works are found for no-notice spontaneous events such as in terrorist events. This work presents the development and demonstration of a modeling approach for postulated dirty-bomb scenario in a complex metropolitan area. Among the main difficulties in characterizing such an event is the need for describing broadly diverse local characteristics under insufficient availability of data. To this end, this paper presents a rule-based approach to model spontaneous evacuation behaviors from diverse information contents. This model adopts fuzzy inference method to incorporate various geometric and demographic factor of metropolitan area. The methodology is demonstrated with simulation of an evacuation event in Chicago metropolitan area using a traffic microsimulation program, TRANSIMS. The simulation study indicated the presented method may provide a flexible framework for integrating heterogeneous data to develop sophisticated evacuation demand model.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: Figures; Maps; Photos; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 13p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01155803
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 10-2635
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jan 25 2010 11:16AM