Modeling Traveler Behavior via Day-to-Day Learning Dynamics: Impacts of Habitual Behavior

This paper focuses on the development of learning-based behavioral mechanisms for updating route and departure time choices when a major and brand new facility is added to the existing transportation system by creating new route choices that did not exist previously. It uses real-world vehicle-by-vehicle data to identify the impacts of such a major change in the transportation network on the habitual behavior of travelers’ choice mechanisms. To model this complex user behavior based on empirical observations; this study applies the Bayesian-SLA framework recently developed by the authors. In this approach, Bayesian-SLA framework systematically accounts for commuters’ belief, perceptions and habitual tendencies about the transportation system, and represents these dynamics as random variables. The developed learning model is calibrated and validated using real traffic and travel time data from New Jersey Turnpike (NJTPK) toll road to investigate the impacts of Interchange 15X installation on the day-to-day departure time and route choice behavior of NJTPK travelers. The estimation results reveal Beta distribution for the posterior distribution of each reward and punishment learning parameter. Mean values for the parameters are (0.029, 0.0029), and standard deviations are (0.011, 0.00093), respectively. These values confirm strong effect of habitual behavior on traveler choice, consistent with the preliminary traffic volume analysis findings. Moreover, the proposed Bayesian-SLA model can successfully capture the significant learning dynamics, demonstrating the possibility of developing a psychological framework (i.e., learning models) as a viable approach to represent travel behavior.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Yanmaz-Tuzel, Ozlem
  • Ozbay, Kaan
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2010-1-10 to 2010-1-14
• Date: 2010

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: DVD
• Features: Figures; Maps; References;
• Pagination: 21p
• Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Behavior; Departure time; Learning; Route choice; Traffic data; Travel behavior; Travel surveys
• Identifier Terms: New Jersey Turnpike
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01155862
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 10-2607
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 30 2010 12:52PM