Applying Probabilistic Network-Level Risk Analysis to the Travel Demand Model

Travel demand model (TDM) results are dependent upon the inputs (e.g., socio-economic and demographic characteristics used in the "trip generation" step of the standard four-step model) and the selected parameters (e.g., ą and ß values in the standard link performance function used in the "trip assignment" step). Given the uncertainty involved in determining appropriate inputs and parameters, there is a risk of programming less critical construction projects based on TDM results that are not truly representative of the community. To account for this uncertainty, a probabilistic framework, along with sensitivity analysis, is recommended. By randomly sampling inputs from statistical distributions and varying parameters, multiple TDM outputs can be assessed. Using risk analysis, various potential projects can then be sorted into a "risk matrix" to ease decision-making. A case study of this approach for the programming of a congestion relief project in one small Indiana Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) region will be presented.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 15p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01155847
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 10-2514
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jan 25 2010 11:11AM