Metrization of High-Speed Railway's Traffic Demand Estimation Risk due to Traffic Risk Fluctuations

Hokkaido Shinkansen bullet train line (HS) is scheduled to open in 2020. In this study, traffic demand of HS is estimated. Since some explanatory variables used for the traffic demand estimation can have estimation errors, traffic demand estimation risk is also estimated. In addition, since HS can compete against airline for modal share, the impact of the travel price competition (TPC) on the traffic demand and the demand fluctuation risk is then estimated. In this study, the traffic demand estimation risk is measured as the variance or the standard deviation (sd) of the stochastic traffic demand. As the results, it is clarified that; the modal share of HS considering TPC decreases by 16 (%) compared with that without considering TPC; TPC make the traffic demand estimation risk decrease; the probabilities of HS being in the red operation with and without consideration of TPC are respectively calculated as 31.2(%) and 1.25(%); and the increase in the mean consumer surpluses by HS are calculated as 47 (billion JPY/year) without TPC and as 66 (billion JPY/year) with TPC.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 14p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01154339
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 10-1828
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jan 25 2010 10:50AM