Modeling Incident-Related Traffic and Estimating Travel Time with a Cellular Automaton Model

Incident related travel time helps drivers decide whether to take an alternate route or delay a trip. This paper presents a cellular automaton model that mimics traffic conditions and estimates travel times from upstream locations through the incident bottleneck, given an estimate of the incident duration. This model is among the first applications of cellular automata to incidents and incorporates driving behavior on a freeway with on- and off-ramps, shoulder lanes, bottlenecks, and incidents. Innovative features of the model include driving behavior on shoulder lanes and speed oscillation in ramp influence zones. The model was applied to a 16 mile section of eastbound Interstate 66 in northern Virginia and successfully reproduced daily bottlenecks. Four incidents were tested, and based on the selected MAPE and GEH thresholds, the model accurately reproduced queue lengths and duration when compared to detector data. Then, based on queue lengths and duration and origin-destination demand, the model generated travel times for every 0.2 miles upstream of the incident at every minute from incident occurrence to queue clearance.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 21p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01154449
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 10-1694
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jan 25 2010 10:45AM