Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Regions: Microsimulation of Land Use and Transport Patterns in Austin, Texas

Policymakers, planners, engineers, and others seek effective ways to anticipate and manage greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for a sustainable future. Here, a microsimulation model was developed to forecast Austin’s demographic and firmographic attributes over time, using a variety of national and local, aggregate and disaggregate data sets. Year 2030 household energy demands and GHG emissions estimates were compared under five different land use and transport policy scenarios. Application of an urban growth boundary provided the lowest increase in overall vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and GHG emissions, while network additions resulted in the highest rates of increase. Average energy consumption per household is estimated to fall over time (by 11 to 19%, depending on the scenario), but the region’s overall energy consumption is estimated to increase dramatically -- by nearly 88% in terms of home energy consumption (in the trend scenario) and 108% in the transport sector, relative to the 2005 base-year conditions. Such increases are considerably higher than proposed GHG targets, presenting a serious energy and emissions challenge for Austin as well as other U.S. regions.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 17p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01155152
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 10-1338
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jan 25 2010 10:36AM