FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FOR DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL DEMAND FOR HIGHWAYS

A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO ECONOMIC FORECASTING IS PRESENTED FOR PLANNERS CHARGED WITH RESPONSIBILITY FOR PREPARING FORECASTS OF HIGHWAY DEMAND. TRAFFIC ESTIMATORS MUST INCLUDE ECONOMIC VARIABLES, LAND-USE CHARACTERISTICS, AND RESIDENTIAL PATTERNS IN EFFORTS NOT ONLY TO PREDICT TOTAL TRAVEL IN A COMMUNITY BUT ALSO TO DETERMINE TRAVEL BETWEEN DISTRICTS OR AREAS WITHIN COMMUNITIES. THE MOST REFINED METHODS FOR INCORPORATING THESE VARIABLES INTO A FORECASTING SYSTEM ARE REVIEWED. THE ACCURACY OF THE MODELS REVIEWED DEPEND UPON THE ABILITY OF TRAFFIC STUDY DIRECTORS TO PREDICT FUTURE LAND-USE AND GENERAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND CONDITIONS. IF THIS CAN BE DONE, THE COMPUTER PROGRAMS WILL PROCESS THE STATISTICS THAT CAN BE GENERATED AND PROVIDE AID TO OBTAIN OPERATIONALLY INTELLIGENT FORECASTING SYSTEMS. THE VALUE OF ELECTRONIC DATA PROCESSING IS APPARENT IN THE CASE OF URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS USING GRAVITY MODEL TECHNIQUES. THE SYSTEMS APPROACH FORCES COORDINATION AND SPECIFICATION OF REQUIREMENTS OF ALL RESEARCH UNITS WORKING ON A TRANSPORTATION PLAN AT EACH OF THE FOUR MAJOR STEPS IN THE PROCESS' /1/ DEVELOPMENT OF DATA INVENTORIES, /2/ ANALYSIS OF EXISTING CONDITIONS AND DETERMINATION OF FORECASTING TECHNIQUES, /3/ PREPARATION OF THE FORECASTS, AND /4/ THE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS. THE SYSTEMS APPROACH ALSO PROVIDES PLANNERS WITH QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS INVOLVING TRANSPORTATION CHANGES OR IMPROVEMENTS.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • 128 Pp, 176 REF
  • Corporate Authors:

    University of Missouri, Columbia

    1205 University Avenue
    Columbia, MO  USA  65201
  • Authors:
    • Paterson, R W
  • Publication Date: 1966

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00200939
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 23 1994 12:00AM