Using Hypothetical Disaster Scenarios to Predict Evacuation Behavioral Response

Disaster evacuation studies most often address only one type of disaster such as a hurricane or nuclear incident. All-hazards emergency planning requires an understanding of how populations may respond to a range of disaster types. This study uses data from a survey of residents living in northern New Jersey to compare stated evacuation behavior under four hypothetical disaster scenarios–a hurricane, industrial accident, “dirty-bomb” attack and catastrophic nuclear explosion. Data includes responses from 2,218 completed interviews. Logistic regression models indicate that predictions of evacuation likelihood are more reliable under a hurricane scenario than for disasters with no advance notice. The analysis shows that risk perception and proximity are important determinants of evacuation behavior for all types of disasters; however, distance-decay functions vary according to disaster type. Socioeconomic variables play a more discernible role in predicting evacuation behavior under a hurricane scenario than other types of disasters.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 18p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01157074
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 10-1175
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jan 25 2010 10:31AM