Oil Demand and Co2 Emissions in India by 2040 Due to the Increase in Highway Vehicles: The Impact of Business-as-Usual Growth

In this study, we have developed motor vehicle projections, related oil demand, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for India until year 2040. The population of highway vehicles and two-wheelers is projected in terms of three different growth scenarios, based on vehicle growth trends worldwide and average household size in India. The results show that India could have more highway vehicles by 2040 than the 1996 vehicle population in the United States. The oil demand projections for the Indian transportation sector are based on a matrix of three vehicle growth scenarios coupled with three fuel economy scenarios. The Indian Government is currently in the process of formulating fuel economy standards. Our fuel economy scenarios assume that Indian fuel economy standards will be based on current Japanese fuel efficiency standards. Using the vehicle growth and fuel economy scenarios, we project that in 2040 oil demand from the transportation sector in India will be in the range of 404 – 719 million metric tons per year (8.5 – 15.1 million barrels per day), with related CO2 emissions in the range of 1.2 – 2.2 billion metric tons per annum. These projections clearly present the severe consequences of unchecked vehicle growth and absence of mandatory fuel economy standards with respect to oil demand and CO2 emissions in India.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: DVD
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 26p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01155435
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 10-0867
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Jan 25 2010 10:24AM