TECHNIQUES FOR PROJECT APPRAISAL UNDER UNCERTAINTY

THE QUESTION OF HOW TO EVALUATE AND PRESENT IN SUMMARY FORM A MEASURE OF THE RELATIVE RISKINESS OF PROJECTS IS DISCUSSED. THE ESSENCE IS SIMPLY THAT MANY OF THE VARIABLES AFFECTING THE OUTCOME OF A PARTICULAR PLAN OF ACTION ARE NOT CONTROLLABLE BY THE PLANNER OR DECISION-MAKER. HENCE PROJECT EVALUATION WHICH TAKES DUE ACCOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES JUDGMENTS ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OF THE NON-CONTROLLABLE VARIABLES, CALCULATION OF A WHOLE SET OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OR RETURNS FOR EACH PROJECT, AND CRITERIA FOR CHOOSING AMONG PROJECTS ON THE BASIS OF SETS OF POSSIBLE RETURNS FROM EACH PROJECT. THE HIGHWAY PROJECT APPRAISAL MODEL PRESENTED IS AN EXAMPLE OF HOW RATE OF RETURN CALCULA- TIONS NORMALLY PERFORMED IN APPRAISING HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT NORMALLY PERFORMED IN APPRAISING HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS CAN BE PRESENTED AS A FORMAL MODEL STATEMENT. THE MODEL AND DATA USED FOR ILLUSTRATING APPLICATION OF APPRAISAL METHODS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CLOSELY APPROXIMATE THE MODEL AND DATA USED IN A PRE-APPRAISAL OF AN ACTUAL PROJECT. /AUTHOR/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Occasional PAPER NO 10, 95 PP
  • Corporate Authors:

    World Bank

    1818 H Street, NW
    Washington, DC  USA  20433
  • Authors:
    • Reutlinger, S
  • Publication Date: 1970

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00200412
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 13 1970 12:00AM