Foreseeing the Market for Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles: Stakeholders' Perspectives and Models of New Technology Diffusion

This paper incorporates the expert opinions of key stakeholders in the estimation of the parameters characterizing the diffusion of a new technology.It focuses on the case of fuel-cell vehicles, looking at the market-share dynamics in the presence of competing vehicle technologies. It builds upon previous work on the diffusion of innovations and used data obtained from a survey of stakeholders of the hydrogen policy process. This paper recognizes the importance of stakeholders in shaping the market introduction of new vehicle technologies. Traditionally, studies on innovation have used historical data on other technologies to generate estimates of the diffusion parameters of a new technology. This study looks at these studies for general guidance, but relies on expert opinions to generate parameter estimates. The methodology is also very flexible in that it can be adapted to different problems and to different policymakers’ preferences. The results on the market diffusion of fuel-cell vehicles are in general less optimistic than projections made by other scholars and governmental bodies. In particular, findings indicate that the time to take off in sales may be longer than generally believed.


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  • Accession Number: 01149123
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: UC Berkeley Transportation Library
  • Report/Paper Numbers: UCD-ITS-RR-05-27
  • Files: BTRIS, TRIS
  • Created Date: Jan 22 2010 2:26PM