TRANSPORTATION FORECASTING: A BRIEF DISCUSSION OF SOME IMPORTANT ISSUES

THE APPROPRIATENESS OF ANY METHOD OF FORECASTING DEPENDS ON MANY FACTORS - THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM TO BE FORECASTED, THE USE TO WHICH THE FORECAST IS TO BE PUT, AND THE RESOURCES AND KNOWLEDGE WHICH THE FORECASTER CAN APPLY TO HIS PROBLEM. THIS PAPER SHOWS THAT TRANSPORTATION FORECASTING ALSO HAS A SUBJECTIVE COMPONENT, IN THIS CASE REVEALING THE BIASES AND INCLINATIONS OF THE AUTHOR. THE MAIN BODY OF THE PAPER IS COMPOSED OF FIVE PARTS. FIRST, TWO FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS ARISING FROM INTERRELATEDNESS AND GOAL SPECIFICATION ARE DISCUSSED. NEXT, THE SPECIFIC PROBLEMS OF FORECASTING STRUCTURES AND CAPABILITIES, TRANSPORTATION FLOWS, AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ARE SUMMARIZED. IN CONCLUSION, SOME OF THE ISSUES WHICH ARE OF GENERAL IMPORTANCE FOR THE FORECASTING OF TRANSPORTATION AND OTHER SOCIO-ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ARE IDENTIFIED. /RATAOC/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Res Paper 33, 25 PP, 30 REF
  • Corporate Authors:

    University of Toronto

    Department of Geography, 100 St George Street
    Toronto, Ontario  Canada  M5S 3G3
  • Authors:
    • Mackinnon, R D
  • Publication Date: 1970-7

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00200149
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Roads & Transportation Assoc /Canada
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jan 23 1973 12:00AM