Market Models for Predicting PHEV Adoption and Diffusion

This is the final report on market models for predicting Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) adoption. The work was one of the tasks carried out by the University of Michigan on the technical challenges of PHEVs and impacts to the U.S. power system. The authors first examine benchmark market models with fixed saturation levels. On balance, the authors conclude that their weaknesses dominate their strengths. The authors then examine two alternative approaches to predicting PHEV adoption and diffusion using models without a fixed saturation level: Centrone et al. (2007) and the consideration-purchase model (suggested by Struben and Sterman (2008)). The consideration-purchase model makes the market behavior of consumers the focus of attention, and it is the authors' preferred market model.

  • Record URL:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy.
  • Corporate Authors:

    University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute

    Automotive Analysis Division, 2901 Baxter Road
    Ann Arbor, MI  United States  48109-2150
  • Authors:
    • McManus, Walter
    • Senter Jr, Richard
  • Publication Date: 2009-7


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Web
  • Edition: Final Report
  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 32p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01147308
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: UMTRI-2009-37
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 24 2009 7:54AM