IS DISPERSAL THE ANSWER TO URBAN "OVERGROWTH"?

A STUDY WAS CONDUCTED TO DETERMINE THE PROBABLE COURSE OF POPULATION GROWTH AND TO ESTIMATE PUBLIC RESOURCES THAT WILL BE REQUIRED TO MEET FUTURE NEEDS. THE HISTORICAL GROWTH OF U. S. POPULATION IS EXAMINED IN ORDER TO MAKE PROJECTIONS OF THE TOTAL POPULATION TO THE YEAR 2000. A TABLE IS PRESENTED SHOWING THE DOUBLING RATE AND THE MEAN ANNUAL GROWTH RATE FROM 1805 TO 1967. THE PROJECTION IS MADE THAT THE POPULATION WILL DOUBLE (TO 400 MILLION) IN 69 YEARS, I.E., BY THE YEAR 2036 AND THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE WILL HAVE DECREASED FROM 3% IN 1805 TO 1% IN 2036. ALSO THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT WITH INCREASING URBANIZATION, POPULATION GROWTH RATES DIMINISH. ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION IN THE YEAR 2000 APPROXIMATE 300 MILLION PLUS OR MINUS 12 MILLION. CHANGES IN THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION IS PRESENTED FOR THE YEARS 1800-1960: THE NORTH REGION INCREASED FROM 50% TO 54%, THE WEST FROM 7% TO 15.5% AND THE SOUTH DECREASED 43% TO 30.5%. WITH CONTINUATION OF PAST TRENDS, THE WEST WILL ADVANCE TO 22%, THE SOUTH AND NORTH DROPPING TO 26% AND 52% RESPECTIVELY. ALL URBAN REGIONS ARE PROJECTED TO GAIN POPULATION; THE 12 MAJOR URBAN REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOUNT FOR APPROXIMATELY 85% OF THE ENTIRE NET INCREASE IN THE NATION. PROJECTION OF THE GROWTH OF METROPOLITAN AREAS ARE OF MASSIVE DIMENSIONS; BOTH LOS ANGELES AND NEW YORK REGIONS ARE PROJECTED TO HAVE URBANIZATION APPROACHING 5000 SQ. MI. EACH, CHICAGO AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREAS 2000 EACH, AND 10 OTHERS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 EACH. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF NEW COMMUNITIES IS ALSO DISCUSSED; 63 HAVE BEEN COMPLETED OR ARE UNDER CONSTRUCTION SINCE 1947, 35 OF WHICH HAVE POPULATIONS OF 50,000 OR MORE. A POSSIBLE MODEL FOR GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF A POPULATION GROWTH OF 30 MILLION IN NEW COMMUNITIES IN THE NEXT 30 YEARS IS PRESENTED IN TABULAR FORM. FUTURE GROWTH PROBLEMS OF THE U.S. AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ARE DISCUSSED, THERE IS NEED FOR CONCERN NOT ONLY ABOUT THE PHYSICAL PLAN AND ENVIRONMENT, BUT ALSO THE SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE URBAN COMMUNITY AND THE ECONOMIC FACTORS. NATIONAL POLICIES AND DEVELOPMENT PLANNING NEED TO BE BROAD AND FAR-REACHING TO IMPROVE LAND USAGE, THE APPEARANCE OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND TO AVOID ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION. THE PLANNED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COMMUNITIES MAY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO ESTABLISH A SUPERIOR COMPATIBILITY BETWEEN URBAN AREAS AND THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT.

  • Availability:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Vol 29, No 1, PP 3-10, 3 FIG, 6 TAB
  • Authors:
    • Pickard, J P
  • Publication Date: 1970-1

Media Info

  • Serial:
    • Urban Land
    • Publisher: Urban Land Institute
    • ISSN: 0042-0891

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00201747
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 20 1970 12:00AM