NEW DIRECTIONS FOR PASSENGER DEMAND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

TRAVEL FORECASTING REQUIRES A PROCESS OF EQUILIBRATION BETWEEN SYSTEM PERFORMANCE FUNCTIONS (IN WHICH PERFORMANCE VARIES WITH TRIP VOLUME) AND DEMAND FUNCTIONS (IN WHICH TRIPMAKING VARIES WITH SYSTEM PERFORMANCE). THUS, TRAVEL DEMAND SHOULD BE RELATED IN A CAUSAL MODEL TO SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM VARIABLES, PERMITTING EXPLICIT EVALUATION OF TRANSPORTATION POLICY DECISIONS - INCLUDING THE EFFECT OF CHANGING SPECIFIC ELEMENTS OF SERVICE OF PRICE. FIRST, BY CONSIDERING MORE FUNDAMENTAL BEHAVIOR PATTERNS, A DEMAND MODEL IS DEVELOPED WHICH TREATS TRIP GENERATION, ATTRACTION, DISTRIBUTION, MODAL SPLIT AND ROUTE ASSIGNMENT SIMULTANEOUSLY, THEREBY AVOIDING MANY PROBLEMS OF TRADITIONAL METHODOLOGIES. THE MODEL ALSO CAN BE EXTENDED TO CHARACTERIZE THE HOUR-TO-HOUR CHANGES IN TRIP BEHAVIOR. SECOND, THE NATURE AND FORM OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE FUNCTIONS ARE EXPLORED, AND THE NECESSARY CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN DEMAND AND PERFORMANCE FUNCTION SCALES AND UNITS IS NOTED. FINALLY, A SIMPLE FORECASTING MODEL IS PRESENTED FOR EQUILIBRATING CHARACTERISTICS OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE WITH THOSE OF TRAVEL DEMAND AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOURLY TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND TRAVEL TIME AND CONGESTION IS CONSIDERED. IN ADDITION, THE COMPLEXITIES AND IMPORTANT ELEMENTS OF DEALING WITH MORE COMPREHENSIVE MULTI-MODAL TRANSPORT NETWORKS ARE OUTLINED. /TR/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Vol 1, No 3, PP 205-230, 4 FIG
  • Authors:
    • Kraft, G
    • Wohl, M
  • Publication Date: 1967-11

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  • Accession Number: 00201356
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 22 1994 12:00AM