TEST OF SOME FIRST GENERATION RESIDENTIAL LAND USE MODELS

THE RELATIVE ACCURACY OF FORECASTING LAND USE BY FIVE RESIDENTIAL LAND USE SIMULATION MODELS WAS TESTED. EXPLICIT MODEL STATEMENTS AND DESCRIPTIONS OF THE PROCEDURES USED IN CALIBRATING THE FORECASTS ARE GIVEN. ALL CONDITIONS FOR THE TEST MODELS WERE HELD CONSTANT EXCEPT THE INTERRELATIONS AMONG VARIABLES, SO THAT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FORECASTS WOULD BE CAUSED ONLY BY INHERENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THEMSELVES. RESULTS OF THE STUDY REPORTED HERE CANNOT BE CONSIDERED DEFINITIVE BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF INFORMATION REQUIRED AND THE DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE MODELS WERE FITTED TO DATA. ALSO, THE STUDY REPRESENTS ONLY ONE OF MANY POSSIBLE TEST CONDITIONS. CONCLUSIONS MAY BE USEFUL TO SMALL METROPOLITAN AREAS, LACKING RESOURCES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW MODELS AND REFINEMENT OF EXISTING MODELS. SIMPLE, NONBEHAVIORAL RESIDENTIAL LAND USE FORECASTING MODELS WERE SHOWN TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ACCURATE FOR METROPOLITAN AREAS OF 100,000 POPULATION OR MORE. THE MODELS ALSO WERE EFFECTIVE IN FORECASTING FOR GEOGRAPHIC UNITS HAVING A POPULATION OF ABOUT 2,000, ALTHOUGH RESULTS FOR SMALLER AREAS WERE NOT ACCURATE. IN THE EVALUATION NONE OF THE FIVE FORECASTING MODELS WAS SUPERIOR ALTHOUGH USE OF ANY ONE OF THE MODELS FOR URBAN PLANNING WOULD BE PREFERABLE TO FORECASTING WITHOUT A MODEL. /AUTHOR/

  • Availability:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Vol 34, No 5, PP 101-109
  • Authors:
    • Swerdloff, C N
  • Publication Date: 1966-12

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  • Accession Number: 00201330
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 12 1994 12:00AM