Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul

This article describes the Strait of Istanbul. This narrow waterway, separating Europe from Asia, has a strategic importance in maritime transportation as it links the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The Strait of Istanbul is considered as one of the world’s most congested and difficult to navigate waterways. Over 55,000 transit vessels pass through the Strait annually, and roughly 20% carry dangerous cargo. This article analyzed safety risks pertaining to transit vessel maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul and proposed ways to mitigate them. Safety risk analysis was performed in incorporating a probabilistic accident risk model into the simulation model. A mathematical risk model was developed based on probabilistic arguments regarding instigators, situations, accidents, consequences, and historical data, as well as subject matter expert opinions. Scenario analysis was carried out to study the behavior of the accident risks, with respect to changes in the surrounding geographical, meteorological, and traffic conditions. The numerical investigations suggested some significant policy indications. Local traffic density and pilotage turned out to be two main factors affecting the risks at the Strait of Istanbul. Results further indicate that scheduling change to allow more vessels in to the Strait will increase risk to extreme levels. Conversely, scheduling policy changes that are opted to reduce risks may cause major increase in average vessel waiting times. This in turn signifies that the current operations at the Strait of Istanbul have reached a critical level beyond which both risks and vessel delays are unacceptable.

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  • Authors:
    • Uluscu, Ozgecan S
    • Ozbas, Birnur
    • Altiok, Tayfur
    • Or, Ilhan
  • Publication Date: 2009-10


  • English

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  • Accession Number: 01144190
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Nov 1 2009 2:23PM