TRANSPORT POLICY DECISION ANALYSIS: A DECISION-THEORETIC FRAMEWORK

A PLANNING FRAMEWORK FOR TREATING FORMALLY THE SEQUENTIAL NATURE OF TRANSPORT SYSTEM CHANGES OVER TIME AND THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF THESE CHANGES IS DESCRIBED. THE FRAMEWORK, BASED ON THE PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY, PROVIDES A MORE REALISTIC PLANNING APPROACH THAN THE COMMONLY USED ONE SHOT APPROACH. SPECIFICALLY, POLICY ALTERNATIVES ARE EVALUATED UNDER UNCERTAINTY OF DEMAND AT EVERY STAGE OF IMPLEMENTATION. A SYSTEMATIC PROCESS IS PROVIDED FOR REVISING THE PRIOR KNOWLEDGE OF PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE OF A POLICY ALTERNATIVE THROUGH MARKET SURVEYS AND DEMONSTRATION STUDIES. APPLICATION TO A REALISTIC PROBLEM DEMONSTRATES HOW THIS FRAMEWORK PROVIDES A FORMAL BASIS FOR DEALING WITH THE SEQUENTIAL AND THE UNCERTAIN ASPECTS OF POLICY DECISION ANALYSIS AND FOR DETERMINING OBJECTIVELY THE ROLE OF THE LEARNING PROCESS. /AUTHOR/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Vol 5, No 2, PP 159-171
  • Authors:
    • Khan, A M
  • Publication Date: 1971-4

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00200459
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 22 1971 12:00AM