GROWTH RATES WITHIN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

GROWTH RATES IN THE TRANSPORTATION OF PEOPLE AND IN THE TRANSPORTATION OF FREIGHT ARE REVIEWED. THE OBSERVATIONS MADE IN THE 1955 - 1968 PERIOD ARE CONSIDERED THE BASIS OF THIS PAPER AND THE GROWTH PATTERNS ARE ILLUSTRATED BY A FIGURE. PROBLEMS IN QUANTIFYING THE ENERGY INTENSIVENESS OF AUTOMOBILE TRAVEL AND CHANGES IN THE MODAL INTENSIVENESS ARE DISCUSSED. INCREASE IN POPULATION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A GROWTH RATE OF ABOUT 1.5 PERCENT, AND INCREASING PER CAPITA PERSONAL TRAVEL AND SHIFTING MODES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GROWTH RATE OF ABOUT 3.5 PERCENT PER YEAR. CHANGES IN FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION DUE TO POPULATION GROWTH AND MODAL SHIFTS ARE DISCUSSED. THE TREND TOWARDS SHIPPING FREIGHT VIA MORE ENERGY-INTENSIVE MODES IS NOTED. HOWEVER, THE ENERGY USE PER CAPITA FOR THE SHIPMENT OF FREIGHT HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY CONSTANT. HISTORICAL DATA AND SIMPLE PROJECTIONS OF THE ENERGY USE OF EACH TRANSPORT MODE ARE ILLUSTRATED, AND ENERGY GROWTH RATES IN TRANSPORTATION FOR THE PERIOD 1955 - 1968 ARE TABULTED. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE THREE FUTURE MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO THE GROWTH IN ENERGY USE BY THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR ARE CHANGES IN TRANSPORT MODES, INCREASING PER CAPITA PERSONAL TRAVEL, AND POPULATION GROWTH. THESE FACTORS ARE THE KEY ITEMS IN THE FUTURE GROWTH OF ENERGY DEMAND FOR TRANSPORTATION.

  • Corporate Authors:

    RAND Corporation

    1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138
    Santa Monica, CA  USA  90407-2138
  • Authors:
    • Mooz, W E
  • Publication Date: 1973-1

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: 9 p.
  • Serial:
    • Issue Number: 4935

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00202399
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 4 1974 12:00AM