AN ANALYSIS OF SHORT HAUL AIR PASSENGER DEMAND, VOLUME 2
Several demand models for short haul air travel are proposed and calibrated on pooled data. The models are designed to predict demand and analyze some of the motivating phenomena behind demand generation. In particular, an attempt is made to include the effects of competing modes and of alternate destinations. The results support three conclusions: (1) the auto mode is the air mode's major competitor; (2) trip time is an overriding factor in intermodal competition, with air fare at its present level appearing unimportant to the typical short haul air traveler; and (3) distance appears to underly several demand generating phenomena, and therefore, must be considered very carefully to any intercity demand model. It may be the cause of the wide range of fare elasticities reported by researchers over the past 15 years. A behavioral demand model is proposed and calibrated. It combines the travel generating effects of income and population, the effects of modal split, the sensitivity of travel to price and time, and the effect of alternative destinations satisfying the trip purpose.
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA United States 02139
- Blumer, T P
- Swan, W M
- Publication Date: 1978
- Pagination: 132 p.
- TRT Terms: Air transportation; Aircraft; Aircraft operations; Airlines; Automobiles; Behavior; Competition; Costs; Demand; Econometrics; Economic factors; Elasticity (Mechanics); Modal split; Mode choice; Motivation; Passenger aircraft; Short haul; Social factors; Transportation modes; Travel demand; Trip length
- Uncontrolled Terms: Passenger demand
- Old TRIS Terms: Airline operations
- Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Finance; Passenger Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Society; Vehicles and Equipment;
- Accession Number: 00198515
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: NASA-CR-152157 Final Rpt.
- Contract Numbers: NSG-2129
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Oct 17 1979 12:00AM