STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF FUTURE VEHICLE POPULATIONS

The model, which is called the Future Automobile Population Stochastic Model (FAPS Model), consists of two major components: (1) Model of new car sales. The model of new car sales is the model of automobile demand developed by Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, revised to incorporate the new vehicle survival model that was developed. (2) A procedure for specifying future planned and unplanned events. This procedure, which specifies the future values of exogenous parameters of the model, incorporates the uncertainty of these parameters into the model. A computer program of the FAPS Model was written and is documented in the report.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Also published as Michigan University, Ann Arbor. Highway Safety Research Institute, Rept. No. UM-HSRI-78-15.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Transportation Systems Center

    55 Broadway, Kendall Square
    Cambridge, MA  United States  02142

    University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

    Highway Safety Research Institute
    Ann Arbor, MI  United States 

    National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Authors:
    • Golomb, D H
    • Bunch, H M
  • Publication Date: 1979-5

Media Info

  • Pagination: 110 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00198195
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: DOT/TSC/NHTSA-79-20 Final Rpt., DOT-HS-803-656
  • Contract Numbers: DOT-TS-13729
  • Files: NTIS, TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Sep 15 1979 12:00AM