STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF FUTURE VEHICLE POPULATIONS
The model, which is called the Future Automobile Population Stochastic Model (FAPS Model), consists of two major components: (1) Model of new car sales. The model of new car sales is the model of automobile demand developed by Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, revised to incorporate the new vehicle survival model that was developed. (2) A procedure for specifying future planned and unplanned events. This procedure, which specifies the future values of exogenous parameters of the model, incorporates the uncertainty of these parameters into the model. A computer program of the FAPS Model was written and is documented in the report.
- Also published as Michigan University, Ann Arbor. Highway Safety Research Institute, Rept. No. UM-HSRI-78-15.
Transportation Systems Center55 Broadway, Kendall Square
Cambridge, MA United States 02142
University of Michigan, Ann ArborHighway Safety Research Institute
Ann Arbor, MI United States
Washington, DC United States 20590
- Golomb, D H
- Bunch, H M
- Publication Date: 1979-5
- Pagination: 110 p.
- TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobile rack cars; Automobiles; Computer programs; Demand; Depreciation; Documents; Economic forecasting; Economic models; Forecasting; Freight traffic; Income; Inventory; Market research; Mathematical models; Motor vehicle industry; Planning; Prices; Probability theory; Purchasing; Sales; Stochastic processes; Traffic forecasting; Trend (Statistics)
- Uncontrolled Terms: Documentation
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Freight Transportation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; Vehicles and Equipment;
- Accession Number: 00198195
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: DOT/TSC/NHTSA-79-20 Final Rpt., DOT-HS-803-656
- Contract Numbers: DOT-TS-13729
- Files: NTIS, TRIS, USDOT
- Created Date: Sep 15 1979 12:00AM