DEMAND FOR SPECIAL-PERFORMANCE VEHICLES, 1975--2025

In the research for alternatives to the internal combustion engine (ICE), UCLLL developed several concepts for alternative energy storage and propulsion systems for passenger cars and light trucks. These conceptual designs include technologies such as battery electric systems, hydrogen-powered systems, and the quasi-electric-drive hybrid (a battery/flywheel hybrid) with a small ICE for range extension). These alternative technologies, referred to as special-performance vehicles (SPVs), may be inferior to the ICE either in acceleration or range (or both). Capital and operating costs for the vehicles span a wide range. UCLLL determined from an engineering standpoint the difference between the cost and performance of the SPVs and ICEs. However, they required a long-range forecast of the marketability of SPVs, i.e., the number and type of each of the alternative technologies that would be sold in a given year, and the annual vehicle miles that each type would travel (VMT). UCLLL needed to know how these estimates of market penetration would respond to alternative assumptions regarding fuel prices, capital and operating cost, total auto ownership forecasts, and demographic characteristics of the American people. Cambridge Systematics (CS) prepared long-range forecasts of the VMT operated by each SP vehicle type in each of four years: 1975, 1985, 2000, and 2025. CS also made market forecasts of SPV use in light-truck applications (under 10,000 lbs.) and made regional ton-mile forecasts for heavy trucks for use in UCLLL energy consumption and flow models. UCLLL provided national aggregate forecasts of variables such as population, auto ownership, per capita income, VMT, TM, and other variables needed in the study.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Cambridge Systematics, Incorporated

    100 Cambridge Park Drive, Suite 400
    Cambridge, MA  USA  02140

    Department of Energy

    1000 Independence Avenue, SW
    Washington, DC  USA  20585
  • Publication Date: 1978-9

Media Info

  • Pagination: 107 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00198150
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Contract Numbers: W-7405-ENG-48
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Sep 15 1979 12:00AM