EXPERIMENTS TO CLARIFY PRIORITIES IN URBAN TRAVEL FORECASTING RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

This final report summarizes the results of a research project to develop improved urban travel forecasting procedures. The project was initiated in 1973 shortly after the Conference of Urban Travel Demand Forecasting (December 1972). Participants of the Conference concluded that significant changes should be made to existing travel forecasting procedures. The objectives of this project are: to investigate recent developments in travel forecasting; to conduct theoretical and empirical comparisons of alternative procedures; and to develop recommendations for further research and development. In the report, the results of a case study which compares alternative forecasting models are presented. The case study indicates empirically significant differences between forecasts from fully specified, consistent travel demand models and forecasts from simplified travel demand models. The simplified models were structured so as to represent conventional forecasting models. Further case study experiments with market segmentation and equilibration demonstrate the empirical importance of these procedures in terms of forecasting accuracy.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    Center for Transportation Studies, Room 1121
    Cambridge, MA  USA  02139

    Urban Mass Transportation Administration

    400 7th Street, SW
    Washington, DC  USA  20590
  • Authors:
    • Ben-Akiva, M E
    • Adler, T J
    • Jacobson, J
    • Manheim, M L
  • Publication Date: 1977

Media Info

  • Pagination: 144 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00197452
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: CTS-77-24 Final Rpt., UMTA-UPM-02-79-3
  • Contract Numbers: DOT-OS-30120
  • Files: NTIS, TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Jul 31 1979 12:00AM