Sensitivity Analysis of the MEPDG Using Measured Probability Distributions of Pavement Layer Thickness

It is widely accepted that a change in thickness on one of the pavement layers, primarily the surface layer, has a considerable impact on the performance that the pavement will exhibit. It is therefore important to characterize the variability of pavement layer thickness so that the performance of a pavement structure not only considers the mean/target design thickness, but also accounts for the effect of spatial thickness variation. This study focuses on Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) SPS-1 sections located in the State of Texas for the purpose of determining the thickness distribution associated with the HMA surface layer, the HMA binder course, and the granular base layer, by means of GPR data. Results from previous research and visual analysis indicate that pavement layers are normally distributed. Therefore, tests for determining normal goodness-of-fit were used in assessing the hypothesis that the thickness data for each individual analyzed layer can come from a normal distribution. The results indicate that 86.1% of the analyzed pavement layers have normally distributed thicknesses. An analysis of the thickness changes that occur within a given section as measured along the lane centerline and under the right wheel-path was also performed. Finally, based on the coefficient of variation identified for the HMA surface and granular base layers, a sensitivity analysis was performed using the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (M-E PDG). The results show a considerable change in distress, mainly fatigue cracking, as the layer thicknesses change within a range of +/- 3 standard deviations from the mean thickness.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Aguiar-Moya, Jose Pablo
  • Banerjee, Ambarish
  • Prozzi, Jorge A
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2009-1-11 to 2009-1-15
• Date: 2009

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: DVD
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 11p
• Monograph Title: TRB 88th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Base course (Pavements); Cracking; Ground penetrating radar; Hot mix asphalt; Pavement design; Pavement distress; Pavement layers; Pavement management systems; Sensitivity analysis; Thickness
• Identifier Terms: Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide
• Subject Areas: Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01125399
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 09-0412
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Mar 30 2009 1:36PM