THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF DRIVER DEMERIT POINTS: A CASE STUDY OF MALE DRIVERS IN NOVA SCOTIA

The predictive power of driver demerit points and other routinely collected driver history data were analysed using prestratified samples of younger and older male drivers in Nova Scotia who had similar driver demerit point histories in years 1971-72. Analysis of driver demerit points accumulated by these drivers in years 1973-74 revealed positive and statistically significant associations between past and future demerit point accumulations among both younger and older drivers, with stronger positive associations among younger drivers. Other variables such as type of violation, community size, and property damage associated with violations also exhibited predictive power in the multivariate regression models tested. Restrictions on use of these predictive models in accident prevention programmes, due to relatively low coefficients of correlation, r2, are discussed.

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  • Accession Number: 00195015
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: HS-025 289
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 11 1979 12:00AM