A careful evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of alternative technically feasible automated guideway transit (AGT) must be done with accurate demand forecasts. However, there have been few, if any, studies of AGT patronage potential using the state of the art in behavioural travel demand analysis. As a consequence, we do not know the cost-effectiveness of alternative system design and performance options. This project applies disaggregate travel demand models to estimate the ridership of a proto-typical downtown circulation AGT. The models were exercised under alternative level of service assumptions to determine the importance of various performance characteristics. Of primary concern was wait time because it appears that transit managers have underestimated the importance of small changes in average wait time. It was concluded that, among feasible technologies, off-line stations will induce more travel than on-line stations, and, as a consequence, contribute to the success of the current downtown people mover demonstrations. It was also concluded that high speed moving walkways are a valid alternative to downtown circulator systems. Of analytical importance, it was found that demand modelling for AGT must include a destination choice component. That is, traditional mode choice analysis understates the patronage estimates because of induced changes in destinations of nonwork trips.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Planning Transport Associates, Incorporated

    P.O. Box 4824, Duke Station
    Durham, NC  United States  27706
  • Authors:
    • Dunbar, F
  • Publication Date: 1978

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00194658
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: British Railways
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 30 1979 12:00AM