Peak Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries: Facing the Hard Truth about an Import Decline for the OECD Countries

Statistical trends for oil intensity from individual countries and groups of countries show that an average increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3% per annum equals to a projected demand for liquids of 101 million barrels per day (Mbpd) by the year 2030. The following analysis shows that this demand cannot be fulfilled by production from current reserves and expected new discoveries. Two models are considered for assessing peaks in oil production: the depletion model (DM), and the giant field model (GFM). The DM model shows peak oil (the maximum rate of production) in the year 2011 with 90 Mbpd. Adding GFM can develop a “worst case” scenario of a plateau in production for the next five to seven years at a rate of 85 Mbpd. A more optimistic case in the “Giant High Case” scenario is a peak in 2012 at 94 Mbpd. A less step increase in demand can move the peak to 2018. Both models show an oil production rate in the order of 50-60 Mbpd by 2030.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 37-114
  • Monograph Title: Oil Dependence: Is Transport Running Out of Affordable Fuel?

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01108662
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 9789282101216
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 14 2008 2:26PM