Traffic and the Risk of Vehicle-Related Pedestrian Injury: A Decision Analytic Support Tool

Although transportation policy decisions can have a major impact on the risk of pedestrian injury, the effects cannot usually be quantified in controlled studies. In this paper, a stochastic mathematical model was developed to estimate the effect of alternative transport scenarios on pedestrian injury risk. The model is based on a mechanistic description of pedestrian injury causation and comprises four sub-models: vehicle dynamics, pedestrian dynamics, collision incidence, and injury severity. The model was used to estimate the yearly pedestrian injury rate for a baseline scenario, corresponding to current traffic conditions in London and three alternative scenarios, comprising reductions in vehicle speed, traffic volume, and vehicle mass. The model simulated a baseline injury rate of 88 per 100,000. Compared with baseline, a 15% reduction in mean speed resulted in a 21% reduction in injury rate and a 75% reduction in fatality rate. A 15% reduction in traffic volume resulted in a 14% reduction in injury rate and a 25% reduction in fatality rate. Reducing vehicle mass by 15% did not reduce the number of injuries, but a 25% reduction resulted in less severe injuries. These findings indicate that the model developed here shows promises as part of a as a generic decision support tool for the evaluation of the effectiveness of alternative transportation policies.


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  • Accession Number: 01108578
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 13 2008 9:49PM