RISK ANALYSIS FOR MARINE TRANSPORTATION

Personnel, valuable commodities, and hazardous materials being transported by sea or inland waterway have been lost or released to the environment after serious ship collisions, rammings, or groundings. The quantitative determination of the risks of such events is therefore of substantial importance to marine transportation. Previous studies of ship collision probabilities have been semiempirical in nature, involving various assumptions for navigational behavior or functional dependencies. This paper derives the necessary physical relations implied by stochastic behavior through the introduction of a ship collision probability flux. The model yields analytical expressions for the probabilities of ship collisions and includes rammings and groundings as special cases. In addition, explicit expressions are given for the probabilities of a ship's being the struck versus the striking vessel. Suggestions for various applications of the stochastic flux model are presented. /Author/

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: pp 24-27
  • Monograph Title: Waterborne commerce and inland port development
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00193354
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Apr 25 1979 12:00AM